This story is adapted from Capitolized, a weekly newsletter featuring expert reporting, analysis and insight from the editors and reporters of Montana Free Press. Want to see Capitolized in your inbox every Thursday? Sign up here.
Montana Congressman Matt Rosendale, who just last week announced a highly anticipated run for U.S. Senate, is dropping his campaign after former President Donald Trump — the ultimate kingmaker in modern GOP politics — endorsed his primary opponent Tim Sheehy last Friday, shortly after Rosendale’s announcement.
“I have long been a supporter of the President, and remain so. But I have been forced to calculate what my chances of success would be with Trump supporting my opponent,” Rosendale said in a statement relayed by his campaign Thursday afternoon. “This race was already going to be tough, as I was fighting against Mitch McConnell and the rest of the Republican establishment in Washington. But I felt like I could beat them, as the voters do not agree with them choosing who would be the next U.S. Senator from Montana. However, by my calculations, with Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep.”
Rosendale added that he spoke this week with Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, “and we both agree that this is the best path forward for Republicans to regain the majority in the U.S. Senate.”
Daines and other national Republicans recruited Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and business owner with relatively shallow roots in Montana, last summer, and have attempted ever since to clear the runway for him to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in the general election.
“By my calculations, with Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep.”
Rep. Matt Rosendale
That led to considerable tension between Rosendale, a hardline “movement conservative” who had the backing of dozens of Republican state lawmakers, and the Sheehy camp, which includes Daines, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, Montana Congressman Ryan Zinke, and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Just this weekend, Rosendale, fresh off his announcement, touted his anti-establishment bona fides — namely, working to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — and pledged that McConnell and the D.C. establishment would not force their hand-picked candidate on Montana.
Rosendale’s departure from the race allows the GOP to marshal its resources behind Sheehy and stave off what was expected to be a nasty primary ahead of the challenge to Tester, who is seen as a vulnerable incumbent and one of the key hurdles Republicans need to clear in order to gain control of the U.S. Senate.
“I appreciate Matt’s many years of service to Montana,” Daines said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter. “It will take all Republicans working together to defeat Jon Tester in November.”
It’s not clear what comes next for Rosendale. His statement said he will “prayerfully consider” his future.
Sheehy, whom Rosendale has spent months criticizing as the D.C. establishment’s hand-picked candidate, was complimentary of his short-lived opponent in a statement Thursday.
“Matt, Montana is grateful for your service and for showing Washington, D.C. what it means to hold the line on reckless spending. I know working together we’ll win this race and defeat Jon Tester,” he said on X.
If he decides to run for re-election to the House, he will likely scuttle the plans of a small army of Republicans who have announced campaigns for the seat under the impression that Rosendale would be running for Senate.
The filing deadline for Montana elections is March 11.
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